According to the results of the latest NAEP reading assessment, there was a drop of 2 points in the average performance of both fourth and eighth graders when compared with 2022 test results. According to Harvard psychometrician Andrew Ho, each point on the scale is estimated to represent 3 weeks of learning (Mervosh, 2022). Thus, the average drop in learning is 6 weeks. At the fourth-grade level 60% of students are reading at the basic level and 31% are reading at the proficient level. Basic represents grade-level reading approximately. The word proficient is often misinterpreted to mean grade level but it most likely above grade level. The Center for Education Statistics (2025) cautions, “It should be noted that the NAEP Proficient achievement level does not represent grade-level proficiency as determined by other assessment standards (e.g., state or district assessments).” In an analysis of questions answered by students reading at the Basic level, students responded correctly between 61 and 71 percent of the time. This suggests that Basic indicates grade level.
More troubling is the increase in the percentage of students reading below Basic. The percentage of fourth graders reading below Basic increased from 34 to 37 percent. For eighth graders, the percentage increased from 27 to 30 percent. The drop in the scores of the lowest-achieving readers and the increase in the percentage of students reading below Basic translate into a large and increasing number of students being further behind. It is a continuing trend that has been noted in earlier assessments. Students who might have been reading one or two years below grade level might now be reading two or three years below grade level.
According to a questionnaire, which accompanied the 2024 NAEP assessment, absenteeism has increased. Although attendance has improved since 2022, it lags pre-pandemic levels. Lower-performing students miss more days than higher-performing students. At the fourth-grade level, 45 percent of students scoring below the 25th percentile reported missing 3 or more days of school in the past month compared to 21 percent of higher-performing students. At the eighth-grade level, the percentage was 39 percent for lower-achieving students versus 21 percent for higher-achieving students. There was also a decrease from 2019 (51 percent) to 2024 (47 percent) in percentage of students asked to write long answers to questions about their reading in tests or assignments. The percentage of higher-performing students asked to engage in long writing assignment was nearly twice that of lower-preforming students. Increased absenteeism and a decrease in demanding tasks may be factors in the recent declines in NAEP reading scores.
Oral Reading Accuracy of Students at Four Levels of Reading Achievement
In a study of oral reading, the accuracy of a nationally representative sample of 1,800 fourth-graders who had taken the NAEP tests was assessed (White et al., 2021). Students were classified as being at one of four levels according to their scores: Below Basic, Basic, Proficient, and Advanced. This assessment provided data on word recognition that can be used to operationalize the NAEP classifications, for instance, the percentage of oral reading accuracy associated with Below Basic, Basic, Proficient, and Advanced designations (Gunning, 2022). As part of the oral reading assessment, students read four passages orally. Percentage of words read accurately was calculated as was reading rate and number of words read correctly per minute. Percentage of words read accurately can be used to estimate students’ reading levels. The figure 95% is widely regarded as an indicator of instructional reading level. Thus, if fourth graders can read at least 95% of the words in typical fourth-grade texts, the students can be classified as reading on grade level. Percentages correct for Basic, Proficient, and Advanced were 96, 97, and 98 percent. From a word recognition point of view, the 96 percentage for Basic level indicates that students reading on a Basic level are, on average, preforming on grade level. Students reading on the Proficient and Advanced levels are reading above grade level.
Oral Reading Performance of Below Basic Students
In the study, Below Basic was divided into three groups: Low, Medium, and High Below Basic, with 11% of students in each group. Their accuracy scores were 82, 92, and 94 percent. High Below Basic students, who were just one percentage point below grade level accuracy, could be accommodated by being provided extra assistance. They should be able to handle grade level text if given additional preparation. The Medium Below Level group would likely need some additional small group instruction. Grade-level text would mostly likely be a bit too challenging for them unless they received fairly extensive preparation. They would benefit from having texts on their instructional level coupled with instruction that would boost them up to grade level. The difference between the Low Below Basic group and the Medium group was quite dramatic. On grade-level passages, the Low Below Basic group misread an average of 16 out of 100 words. They would need intensive small group instruction and possibly individual intervention and materials on their instructional level. The goal would be to boost their skills and gradually increase the challenge of the materials they read so that eventually they would be reading on or close to grade level. Overall, the results, which have been adjusted to account for the recent increase in percentage of students reading below Basic, suggest that 13% of fourth graders are reading significantly below grade level, 13% are reading somewhat below grade level, and 13% are reading slightly below grade level.
References
Gunning, T. G. (2022). Closing the literacy gap: Accelerating the progress of underperforming students. New York: Guilford Press.
Mervosh, S. (2022, Sept 1). The pandemic erased two decades of progress in math and reading. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/01/us/national-test- scores-math-reading-pandemic.html
National Center for Education Statistics (2025). NAEP ReportCard: Reading. https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/reports/reading/2024/g4_8/?grade=4
White, S., Sabatini, J., Park, B. J., Chen, J., Bernstein, J., & Li, M. (2021). Highlights of the 2018 NAEP Oral Reading Fluency Study (NCES 2021–026). Washington, DC: Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics. https://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2021026